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dc.contributor.author Traversa, P.
dc.contributor.author Lengliné, O.
dc.contributor.author Macedo Sánchez, Orlando Efraín
dc.contributor.author Metaxian, J. P.
dc.contributor.author Grasso, J. R.
dc.contributor.author Inza Callupe, Lamberto Adolfo
dc.contributor.author Taipe, Edu
dc.coverage.spatial Ubinas, Volcán (Moquegua, Perú)
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-21T15:59:21Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-21T15:59:21Z
dc.date.issued 2011-11
dc.identifier.citation Traversa, P., Lengliné, O., Macedo, O., Metaxian, J. P., Grasso, J. R., Inza, A., & Taipe, E. (2011). Short term forecasting of explosions at Ubinas volcano, Perú.==$Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 116$==(B11), B11301. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008180 es_ES
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/3041
dc.description.abstract Most seismic eruption forerunners are described using Volcano‐Tectonic earthquakes, seismic energy release, deformation rates or seismic noise analyses. Using the seismic data recorded at Ubinas volcano (Perú) between 2006 and 2008, we explore the time evolution of the Long Period (LP) seismicity rate prior to 143 explosions. We resolve an average acceleration of the LP rate above the background level during the 2–3 hours preceding the explosion onset. Such an average pattern, which emerges when stacking over LP time series, is robust and stable over all the 2006–2008 period, for which data is available. This accelerating pattern is also recovered when conditioning the LP rate on the occurrence of an other LP event, rather than on the explosion time. It supports a common mechanism for the generation of explosions and LP events, the magma conduit pressure increase being the most probable candidate. The average LP rate acceleration toward an explosion is highly significant prior to the higher energy explosions, supposedly the ones associated with the larger pressure increases. The dramatic decay of the LP activity following explosions, still reinforce the strong relationship between these two processes. We test and we quantify the retrospective forecasting power of these LP rate patterns to predict Ubinas explosions. The prediction quality of the forecasts (e.g. for 17% of alarm time, we predict 63% of Ubinas explosions, with 58% of false alarms) is evaluated using error diagrams. The prediction results are stable and the prediction algorithm validated, i.e. its performance is better than the random guess. es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher American Geophysical Union es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:2169-9313
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/ es_ES
dc.subject Long Period es_ES
dc.subject Ubinas es_ES
dc.subject Explosion es_ES
dc.subject Forecasting es_ES
dc.subject Seismicity es_ES
dc.subject Volcano es_ES
dc.title Short term forecasting of explosions at Ubinas volcano, Perú es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.00 es_ES
dc.subject.ocde http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.04 es_ES
dc.subject.ocde http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.07 es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008180 es_ES

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