Bayesian parameter estimation for space and time interacting earthquake rupture model using historical and physics-based simulated earthquake catalogs

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dc.contributor.authorCeferino, Luis
dc.contributor.authorGalvez, Percy
dc.contributor.authorAmpuero, Jean‐Paul
dc.contributor.authorKiremidjian, Anne
dc.contributor.authorDeierlein, Gregory
dc.contributor.authorVillegas Lanza, Juan Carlos
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-19T13:00:17Z
dc.date.available2022-04-19T13:00:17Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.description.abstractThis article introduces a framework to supplement short historical catalogs with synthetic catalogs and determine large earthquakes’ recurrence. For this assessment, we developed a parameter estimation technique for a probabilistic earthquake occurrence model that captures time and space interactions between large mainshocks. The technique is based on a two‐step Bayesian update that uses a synthetic catalog from physics‐based simulations for initial parameter estimation and then the historical catalog for further calibration, fully characterizing parameter uncertainty. The article also provides a formulation to combine multiple synthetic catalogs according to their likelihood of representing empirical earthquake stress drops and Global Positioning System‐inferred interseismic coupling. We applied this technique to analyze large‐magnitude earthquakes’ recurrence along 650 km of the subduction fault’s interface located offshore Lima, Peru. We built nine 2000 yr long synthetic catalogs using quasi‐dynamic earthquake cycle simulations based on the rate‐and‐state friction law to supplement the 450 yr long historical catalog. When the synthetic catalogs are combined with the historical catalog without propagating their uncertainty, we found average relative reductions larger than 90% in the recurrence parameters’ uncertainty. When we propagated the physics‐based simulations’ uncertainty to the posterior, the reductions in uncertainty decreased to 60%–70%. In two Bayesian assessments, we then show that using synthetic catalogs results in higher parameter uncertainty reductions than using only the historical catalog (69% vs. 60% and 83% vs. 80%), demonstrating that synthetic catalogs can be effectively combined with historical data, especially in tectonic regions with short historical catalogs. Finally, we show the implications of these results for time‐dependent seismic hazard.es_ES
dc.description.peer-reviewPor pareses_ES
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_ES
dc.identifier.citationCeferino, L., Galvez, P., Ampuero, J., Kiremidjian, A., Deierlein, G., & Villegas‐Lanza, J. C. (2021). Bayesian parameter estimation for space and time interacting earthquake ruptura model using historical and physics‐based simulated earthquake catalogs.==$Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 111$==(6), 3356-3373. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210013es_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1785/0120210013es_ES
dc.identifier.govdocindex-oti2018
dc.identifier.journalBulletin of the Seismological Society of Americaes_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/5218
dc.language.isospaes_ES
dc.publisherSeismological Society of Americaes_ES
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:0037-1106
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccesses_ES
dc.subjectBayesian analysises_ES
dc.subjectEarthquakeses_ES
dc.subjectFaultses_ES
dc.subjectGeologic hazardses_ES
dc.subjectGlobal Positioning Systemes_ES
dc.subjectMain shockses_ES
dc.subjectNatural hazardses_ES
dc.subjectPropagationes_ES
dc.subjectRupturees_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.04es_ES
dc.titleBayesian parameter estimation for space and time interacting earthquake rupture model using historical and physics-based simulated earthquake catalogses_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES

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