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dc.contributor.author Almazroui, Mansour
dc.contributor.author Islam, M. Nazrul
dc.contributor.author Saeed, Fahad
dc.contributor.author Saeed, Sajjad
dc.contributor.author Ismail, Muhammad
dc.contributor.author Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar
dc.contributor.author Diallo, Ismaila
dc.contributor.author O’Brien, Enda
dc.contributor.author Ashfaq, Moetasim
dc.contributor.author Martínez Castro, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Cavazos, Tereza
dc.contributor.author Cerezo‑Mota, Ruth
dc.contributor.author Tippett, Michael K.
dc.contributor.author Gutowski Jr., William J.
dc.contributor.author Alfaro, Eric J.
dc.contributor.author Hidalgo, Hugo G.
dc.contributor.author Vichot‑Llano, Alejandro
dc.contributor.author Campbell, Jayaka D.
dc.contributor.author Kamil, Shahzad
dc.contributor.author Rashid, Irfan Ur
dc.contributor.author Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
dc.contributor.author Stephenson, Tannecia
dc.contributor.author Taylor, Michael
dc.contributor.author Barlow, Mathew
dc.coverage.spatial United States
dc.coverage.spatial Central America
dc.coverage.spatial Caribbean
dc.date.accessioned 2021-06-28T10:59:03Z
dc.date.available 2021-06-28T10:59:03Z
dc.date.issued 2021-01
dc.identifier.citation Almazroui, M., Islam, M. N., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Ismail, M., Ehsan, M. A., … Barlow, M. (2021). Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs.==$Earth Systems and Environment, 5$==(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5 es_ES
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/4950
dc.description.abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections. es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher Springer es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:2509-9434
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ es_ES
dc.subject Climate change es_ES
dc.subject CMIP6 es_ES
dc.subject Temperature es_ES
dc.subject Precipitation es_ES
dc.title Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Earth Systems and Environment es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5 es_ES

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