Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

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dc.contributor.authorAlmazroui, Mansour
dc.contributor.authorIslam, M. Nazrul
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Fahad
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Sajjad
dc.contributor.authorIsmail, Muhammad
dc.contributor.authorEhsan, Muhammad Azhar
dc.contributor.authorDiallo, Ismaila
dc.contributor.authorO’Brien, Enda
dc.contributor.authorAshfaq, Moetasim
dc.contributor.authorMartínez Castro, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorCavazos, Tereza
dc.contributor.authorCerezo‑Mota, Ruth
dc.contributor.authorTippett, Michael K.
dc.contributor.authorGutowski Jr., William J.
dc.contributor.authorAlfaro, Eric J.
dc.contributor.authorHidalgo, Hugo G.
dc.contributor.authorVichot‑Llano, Alejandro
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, Jayaka D.
dc.contributor.authorKamil, Shahzad
dc.contributor.authorRashid, Irfan Ur
dc.contributor.authorSylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
dc.contributor.authorStephenson, Tannecia
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Michael
dc.contributor.authorBarlow, Mathew
dc.coverage.spatialUnited States
dc.coverage.spatialCentral America
dc.coverage.spatialCaribbean
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-28T10:59:03Z
dc.date.available2021-06-28T10:59:03Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-29
dc.description.abstractThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.es_ES
dc.description.peer-reviewPor pareses_ES
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_ES
dc.identifier.citationAlmazroui, M., Islam, M. N., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Ismail, M., Ehsan, M. A., … Barlow, M. (2021). Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs.==$Earth Systems and Environment, 5$==(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5es_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5es_ES
dc.identifier.govdocindex-oti2018
dc.identifier.journalEarth Systems and Environmentes_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/4950
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherSpringeres_ES
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:2509-9434
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/es_ES
dc.subjectClimate changees_ES
dc.subjectCMIP6es_ES
dc.subjectTemperaturees_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitationes_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09es_ES
dc.titleProjected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMses_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES

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