First successful prediction of a convective equatorial ionospheric storm using solar wind parameters

Abstract

One of the major challenges of the National Space Weather Program in the United States is to predict the generation of intense turbulence in the equatorial and low‐latitude ionosphere. We term this a convective equatorial ionospheric storm since, much like a thunderstorm, low‐density media erupt upward, releasing stored gravitational energy. This is an important phenomenon since both communication and navigational systems can be severely affected by the associated turbulence. Here, for the first time, we use solar wind data obtained upstream of the Earth and a physics‐based assimilative model to successfully predict such an event during a strong magnetic storm in November 2004.