Assimilative modeling of the equatorial ionosphere for scintillation forecasting: modeling with vertical drifts

Abstract

Knowledge of the vertical plasma drift velocity observed by the Jicamarca incoherent radar in seven events is assimilated into a theoretical model for the ambient F region plasma density. Comparisons of the calculated plasma density model and the observed plasma density show that, apart from the signature effects of equatorial plasma bubbles, the ambient model captures much of the detail of the plasma density profiles. Rayleigh‐Taylor growth rates calculated with the ambient model show a good correlation with the occurrence of spread F.