Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorAlmazroui, Mansour
dc.contributor.authorAshfaq, Moetasim
dc.contributor.authorIslam, M. Nazrul
dc.contributor.authorRashid, Irfan Ur
dc.contributor.authorKamil, Shahzad
dc.contributor.authorAbid, Muhammad Adnan
dc.contributor.authorO’Brien, Enda
dc.contributor.authorIsmail, Muhammad
dc.contributor.authorReboita, Michelle Simões
dc.contributor.authorSörensson, Anna A.
dc.contributor.authorArias, Paola A.
dc.contributor.authorAlves, Lincoln Muniz
dc.contributor.authorTippett, Michael K.
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Sajjad
dc.contributor.authorHaarsma, Rein
dc.contributor.authorDoblas‑Reyes, Francisco J.
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Fahad
dc.contributor.authorKucharski, Fred
dc.contributor.authorNadeem, Imran
dc.contributor.authorSilva Vidal, Yamina
dc.contributor.authorRivera, Juan A.
dc.contributor.authorEhsan, Muhammad Azhar
dc.contributor.authorMartínez-Castro, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorMuñoz, Ángel G.
dc.contributor.authorAli, Md. Arfan
dc.contributor.authorCoppola, Erika
dc.contributor.authorSylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
dc.coverage.spatialSouth America
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-06T18:05:27Z
dc.date.available2021-07-06T18:05:27Z
dc.date.issued2021-06-17
dc.description.abstractWe evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.es_ES
dc.description.peer-reviewPor pareses_ES
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_ES
dc.identifier.citationAlmazroui, M., Ashfaq, M., Islam, M. N., Rashid, I. U., Kamil, S., Abid, M. A., ... & Sylla, M. B. (2021). Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America.==$Earth Systems and Environment, 5,$==155-183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6es_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6es_ES
dc.identifier.govdocindex-oti2018
dc.identifier.journalEarth Systems and Environmentes_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/4957
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherSpringeres_ES
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:2509-9434
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/es_ES
dc.subjectCMIP6es_ES
dc.subjectClimate changees_ES
dc.subjectGlobal climate modelses_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09es_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10es_ES
dc.titleAssessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South Americaes_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Almazroui_et_al_2021_Earth_Systems_and_Environment.pdf
Size:
8.83 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Arbitrados