Spatial analysis and temporal trends of daily precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River basin: central Andes of Peru

Abstract

The analysis of annual or seasonal data can lead to misinterpretation of spatio-temporal rainfall distribution. A high percentage of total annual precipitation can fall in just a few days, causing floods or landslides. Large economic losses from these events are particularly common in Peru, where the daily precipitation has been poorly investigated. This study presents a spatio-temporal analysis of concentration index over the Mantaro River basin in the central Peruvian Andes. Daily rainfall data recorded at 46 rainfall stations between 1974 and 2004 were selected in this study. In terms of average values, the analysis of daily rainfall indicates that low-intensity events account for 38 % of rainy days but only approximately 9 % of the total rain amount. In contrast, high- and very high-intensity events account for 35 % of rainy days and approximately 71 % of the total rain amount. The results also indicate higher concentration and lower intensity over the Northern and Central regions, compared to Southern region of the basin. Rainfall concentration gives evidence of why some of these places are more likely to be affected by extreme weather events; spatial distribution of event intensity can be partly explained by daily rainfall heterogeneity and orography. Moreover, Mann–Kendall test mostly shows a significant change toward a weaker seasonality of daily precipitation distribution over high-mountain regions.