Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

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dc.contributor.authorCai, Wenju
dc.contributor.authorWang, Guojian
dc.contributor.authorSantoso, Agus
dc.contributor.authorMcPhaden, Michael J.
dc.contributor.authorWu, Lixin
dc.contributor.authorJin, Fei-Fei
dc.contributor.authorTimmermann, Axel
dc.contributor.authorCollins, Mat
dc.contributor.authorVecchi, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorLengaigne, Matthieu
dc.contributor.authorEngland, Matthew H.
dc.contributor.authorDommenget, Dietmar
dc.contributor.authorTakahashi, Ken
dc.contributor.authorGuilyardi, Eric
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-10T16:10:14Z
dc.date.available2018-09-10T16:10:14Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractThe El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1,2,3,4,5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4,7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8,9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10,11,12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.es_ES
dc.description.peer-reviewPor pareses_ES
dc.formatapplication/pdfes_ES
dc.identifier.citationCai, W., Wang, G., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., Jin, F. F., ... Guilyardi, E. (2015). Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming.==$Nature Climate Change, 5,$==132-137. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2492es_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2492es_ES
dc.identifier.govdocindex-oti2018
dc.identifier.journalNaturees_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/2888
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherNature Researches_ES
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:0028-0836
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesses_ES
dc.subjectAtmospheric dynamicses_ES
dc.subjectEnvironmental healthes_ES
dc.subjectPhysical oceanographyes_ES
dc.subjectProjection and predictiones_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttp://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.00es_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttp://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09es_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttp://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10es_ES
dc.subject.ocdehttp://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.11es_ES
dc.titleIncreased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warminges_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES

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