Diagnosis of the Extreme Climate Events of Temperature and Precipitation in Metropolitan Lima during 1965–2013

Abstract

The most extreme precipitation event in Metropolitan Lima (ML) occurred on 15 January 1970 (16 mm), this event caused serious damage, and the real vulnerability of this city was evidenced; the population is still not prepared to resist events of this nature. This research describes the local climate variability and extreme climate indices of temperature and precipitation. In addition, the most extreme precipitation event in ML is analyzed. Extreme climate indices were identified based on the methodology proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Some extreme temperature indices highlight an initial trend toward warm conditions (1965–1998); this trend has changed towards cold conditions since 1999, consistent with the thermal cooling during the last two decades in ML (−0.5 °C/decade) and other coastal areas of Peru. The variations of extreme temperature indices are mainly modulated by sea-surface temperature (SST) alterations in the Niño 1 + 2 region (moderate to strong correlations were found). Extreme precipitation indices show trends toward wet conditions after the 1980s, the influence of the Pacific Ocean SST on the extreme precipitation indices in ML is weak and variable in sign. The most extreme precipitation event in ML is associated with a convergence process between moisture fluxes from the east (Amazon region) at high and mid levels and moisture fluxes from the west (Pacific Ocean) at low levels, and near the surface.