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dc.contributor.author Lutsko, Nicholas J.
dc.contributor.author Takahashi, Ken
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-18T18:57:15Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-18T18:57:15Z
dc.date.issued 2018-06
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018 (NB)
dc.identifier.issn 15200442
dc.identifier.uri http://repositorio.igp.gob.pe/handle/IGP/2982
dc.description En: Journal of Climate (July 2018).
dc.description.abstract "The relationship between climate models’ internal variability and their response to external forcings is investigated. Frequency-dependent regressions are performed between the outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy fluxes and the global-mean surface temperature in the preindustrial control simulations of the CMIP5 archive. Two distinct regimes are found. At subdecadal frequencies the surface temperature and the outgoing shortwave flux are in quadrature, while the outgoing longwave flux is linearly related to temperature and acts as a negative feedback on temperature perturbations. On longer time scales the outgoing shortwave and longwave fluxes are both linearly related to temperature, with the longwave continuing to act as a negative feedback and the shortwave acting as a positive feedback on temperature variability. In addition to the different phase relationships, the two regimes can also be seen in estimates of the coherence and of the frequency-dependent regression coefficients. The frequency-dependent regression coefficients for the total cloudy-sky flux on time scales of 2.5 to 3 years are found to be strongly (r2 > 0.6) related to the models’ equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs), suggesting a potential “emergent constraint” for Earth’s ECS. However, O(100) years of data are required for this relationship to become robust. A simple model for Earth’s surface temperature variability and its relationship to the TOA fluxes is used to provide a physical interpretation of these results." es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher Instituto Geofísico del Perú es_ES
dc.relation.uri https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0736.1 es_ES
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess es_ES
dc.source Repositorio institucional - IGP es_ES
dc.subject Climatología es_ES
dc.subject Temperatura atmosférica es_ES
dc.subject Climatología--Modelos matemáticos es_ES
dc.subject Climatología--Métodos estadísticos es_ES
dc.subject Meteorología--Modelos matemáticos es_ES
dc.subject Meteorología--Métodos estadísticos es_ES
dc.title What can the internal variability of CMIP5 models tell us about their climate sensitivity? es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Clima es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Temperatura es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Atmósfera es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Meteorología es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Journal of Climate es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0736.1 es_ES

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