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dc.contributor.author Jauregui, Yakeliyn R.
dc.contributor.author Takahashi, Ken
dc.date.accessioned 2018-08-06T11:19:53Z
dc.date.available 2018-08-06T11:19:53Z
dc.date.issued 2017-06
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018 (NB)
dc.identifier.issn 14320894
dc.identifier.uri http://repositorio.igp.gob.pe/handle/IGP/2242
dc.description En: Climate Dynamics, v. 50, n. 5–6, (June 2017), p. 2217–2237.
dc.description.abstract "The observed nonlinear relationship between tropical sea surface temperature (Ts) and precipitation (P) on climate timescales, by which a threshold (Tc) must be exceeded by Ts in order for deep convection to occur, is the basis of a physical-empirical model (PEM) that we fitted to observational data and CMIP5 climate model output and used to show that, with essentially only two constant parameters ( Tc and the sensitivity a1 of P to Ts>Tc ), it provides a useful first-order description of the climatological and interannual variability of the large-scale distribution of tropical P given Ts , as well as of the biases of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). A substantial limitation is its underestimation of the peak P in the convergence zones, as the necessary processes associated with the atmospheric circulation are not considered. The pattern of the intermodel correlation between the mean Ts−Tc for each GCM and the average P distribution is in agreement with the double ITCZ bias, featuring roughly zonally-symmetric off-equatorial maxima, rather than being regionally or hemispherically restricted. The inter-comparison of GCMs indicates a relationship between Tc with the near-equatorial low-level (850 hPa) tropospheric temperature, consistent with the interpretation that it is a measure of the convective inhibition (CIN). The underestimation of Tc is linked to the cold free tropospheric bias in the GCMs. However, the discrepancy among the observational datasets is a limitation for assessing the GCM biases from the PEM framework quantitatively. Under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario, Tc increases slightly more than the mean tropical Ts , implying a stabilizing trend consistent with the amplified free tropospheric warming relative to the surface. However, since a1 increases by 10–50%/ ∘ C with the surface warming, its effect dominates and results in generally positive precipitation change ( ΔP ) in the equatorial regions. In the equatorial eastern-central Pacific cold tongue, Δ(Ts−Tc) is positive, but the absolute Ts−Tc remains small, which explains the double band pattern of ΔP along the equatorial flanks of the spuriously strong double ITCZs. When the GCM biases are corrected in the PEM, the positive ΔP in the southeast Pacific and Atlantic oceans is substantially reduced." es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher Instituto Geofísico del Perú es_ES
dc.relation.uri https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3745-3 es_ES
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess es_ES
dc.source Repositorio institucional - IGP es_ES
dc.subject Cambio climático es_ES
dc.subject Temperatura del océano--Observaciones es_ES
dc.subject Temperatura del océano--Modelos matemáticos es_ES
dc.subject Lluvia y precipitación--Procesamiento de datos es_ES
dc.subject Circulación atmosférica--Modelos matemáticos es_ES
dc.subject Dinámica atmosférica es_ES
dc.title Simple physical‑empirical model of the precipitation distribution based on a tropical sea surface temperature threshold and the effects of climate change es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Temperatura es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Océanos es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Precipitación es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Modelos matemáticos es_ES
dc.subject.ocde Clima es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Climate Dynamics es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s00382-017-3745-3 es_ES

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