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dc.contributor.author Sulca Jota, Juan Carlos
dc.contributor.author Vuille, Mathias
dc.contributor.author Timm, Oliver Elison
dc.contributor.author Dong, Bo
dc.contributor.author Zubieta Barragán, Ricardo
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-11T17:52:46Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-11T17:52:46Z
dc.date.issued 2021-01-12
dc.identifier.citation Sulca, J., Vuille, M., Timm, O. E., Dong, B., & Zubieta, R. (2021). Empirical–Statistical Downscaling of austral summer precipitation over South America, with a focus on the central Peruvian Andes and the equatorial Amazon basin.==$Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60$==(1), 65-85. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0066.1 es_ES
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/4909
dc.description.abstract Precipitation is one of the most difficult variables to estimate using large scale predictors. Over South America (SA), this task is even more challenging, given the complex topography of the Andes. Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) models can be used for this purpose, but such models, applicable for all of SA, have not yet been developed. To address this issue, we construct an ESD model based on multiple linear regression techniques for the period 1982-2016 that is based on large-scale circulation indices representing tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and South American climate variability, to estimate austral summer (DJF) precipitation over SA. Statistical analyses show that the ESD model can reproduce observed precipitation anomalies over the tropical Andes (Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia), the eastern equatorial Amazon basin, and the central part of the western Argentinian Andes. On a smaller scale, the ESD model also shows good results over the western Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes. The ESD model reproduces anomalously dry conditions over the eastern equatorial Amazon and the wet conditions over Southeastern South America (SESA) during the three extreme El Niño’s 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. However, it overestimates the observed intensities over SESA. For the central Peruvian Andes as a case study, results further show that the ESD model can correctly reproduce DJF precipitation anomalies over the entire Mantaro basin during the three extreme El Niño episodes. Moreover, multiple experiments with varying predictor combinations of the ESD model corroborate the hypothesis that the interaction between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean provoked the Amazon drought in 2015/16. es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher American Meteorological Society es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:1558-8424
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess es_ES
dc.subject Atlantic Ocean es_ES
dc.subject Intertropical convergence zone es_ES
dc.subject South America es_ES
dc.subject South Atlantic convergence zone es_ES
dc.subject Tropics es_ES
dc.subject ENSO es_ES
dc.subject Teleconnections es_ES
dc.subject Precipitation es_ES
dc.subject Summer/warm season es_ES
dc.title Empirical–Statistical Downscaling of austral summer precipitation over South America, with a focus on the central Peruvian Andes and the equatorial Amazon basin es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 es_ES
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10 es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0066.1 es_ES

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