Browsing by Author "Ilbay, Mercy"

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    Comparative analysis of climate change impacts on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts in the lake Titicaca basin
    (MDPI, 2021-01-13) Zubieta Barragán, Ricardo; Molina-Carpio, Jorge; Laqui, Wilber; Sulca Jota, Juan Carlos; Ilbay, Mercy
    The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.
    Palabras clave:DroughtClimate change impactsTiticaca basin
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    Retraso en el inicio de la temporada de lluvias e incremento de la ocurrencia de incendios
    (Instituto Geofísico del Perú, 2023-07) Zubieta Barragán, Ricardo; Ccanchi, Yerson; Martínez Grimaldo, Alejandra; Saavedra Huanca, Miguel; Norabuena Ortiz, Edmundo; Alvarez, Sigrid; Ilbay, Mercy
    Al ocurrir un incendio forestal en los Andes, se suele pensar que la causa de este fuego que se propaga surge de la quema agrícola realizada por la propia población. Durante el año 2020, el periodo de la pandemia de la COVID-19, se registró la ocurrencia sin precedentes de incendios forestales en los Andes peruanos. Este estudio evalúa las condiciones climáticas y vegetativas propicias para la ocurrencia de dichos eventos haciendo uso de los datos de precipitación, reflectividad y el registro nacional de incendios (MINAM). El análisis de la precipitación estacional del año 2020 indica que este periodo no está estadísticamente asociado con un periodo de sequía; no obstante, el alto incremento de la frecuencia acumulada de días secos entre agosto y noviembre de 2020, durante el periodo de inicio de lluvias (al igual que los periodos de sequía de 2005, 2010 y 2016), habría desempeñado un rol importante en el aumento de condiciones favorables para la propagación de quemas y, por tanto, de incendios forestales. A ello se añade el contexto de la pandemia de la COVID-19, situación que propició el retorno por parte de la población a la actividad agrícola, lo cual habría favorecido la práctica de quemas con la finalidad de limpiar el terreno previo al cultivo.
    Palabras clave:SequíaIncendios forestalesCombustible forestal
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    The role of drought conditions on the recent increase in wildfire occurrence in the high Andean regions of Peru
    (CSIRO Publishing, 2023-01-24) Zubieta Barragán, Ricardo; Ccanchi, Yerson; Martínez Grimaldo, Alejandra; Saavedra Huanca, Miguel; Norabuena Ortiz, Edmundo; Alvarez, Sigrid; Ilbay, Mercy
    Wildfire occurrence has increased sharply in the last two decades in the Peruvian Andes. There is, however, little research on wildfires and their impacts. This study explores the conditions conducive to wildfire during 2020. MODIS images were collected to estimate the development of vegetation. In addition, ground-based monthly and satellite-based daily precipitation data were collected. Daily precipitation regularity was evaluated using a concentration index (CI), while monthly precipitation was used to estimate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). We used also the Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI), which is a useful indicator of vegetation dynamics based on vegetation moisture. Our results do not indicate a direct link between rainfall regularity (lowest CI values) and development of vegetation. Although the SPI drought analysis using seasonal rainfall indicated nearly normal conditions during 2019–2020, analysis of dry-day frequency (DDF) suggests that the dry period played an important role between September and November 2020, producing conditions similar to the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2016. GVMI also showed below-average values from April to November. We corroborate the usefulness of DDF for monitoring the potential increase in wildfire conditions. A controlled burn policy could offer a more useful way to reduce the impacts of wildfire.
    Palabras clave:ClimateDroughtFire management