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dc.contributor.author Almazroui, Mansour
dc.contributor.author Ashfaq, Moetasim
dc.contributor.author Islam, M. Nazrul
dc.contributor.author Rashid, Irfan Ur
dc.contributor.author Kamil, Shahzad
dc.contributor.author Abid, Muhammad Adnan
dc.contributor.author O’Brien, Enda
dc.contributor.author Ismail, Muhammad
dc.contributor.author Reboita, Michelle Simões
dc.contributor.author Sörensson, Anna A.
dc.contributor.author Arias, Paola A.
dc.contributor.author Alves, Lincoln Muniz
dc.contributor.author Tippett, Michael K.
dc.contributor.author Saeed, Sajjad
dc.contributor.author Haarsma, Rein
dc.contributor.author Doblas‑Reyes, Francisco J.
dc.contributor.author Saeed, Fahad
dc.contributor.author Kucharski, Fred
dc.contributor.author Nadeem, Imran
dc.contributor.author Silva Vidal, Yamina
dc.contributor.author Rivera, Juan A.
dc.contributor.author Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar
dc.contributor.author Martínez-Castro, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Muñoz, Ángel G.
dc.contributor.author Ali, Md. Arfan
dc.contributor.author Coppola, Erika
dc.contributor.author Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
dc.coverage.spatial South America
dc.date.accessioned 2021-07-06T18:05:27Z
dc.date.available 2021-07-06T18:05:27Z
dc.date.issued 2021-06-17
dc.identifier.citation Almazroui, M., Ashfaq, M., Islam, M. N., Rashid, I. U., Kamil, S., Abid, M. A., ... & Sylla, M. B. (2021). Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America.==$Earth Systems and Environment, 5,$==155-183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6 es_ES
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/4957
dc.description.abstract We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America. es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher Springer es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:2509-9434
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ es_ES
dc.subject CMIP6 es_ES
dc.subject Climate change es_ES
dc.subject Global climate models es_ES
dc.title Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 es_ES
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10 es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Earth Systems and Environment es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6 es_ES

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