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dc.contributor.author Guimberteau, M.
dc.contributor.author Ronchail, J.
dc.contributor.author Espinoza, Jhan Carlo
dc.contributor.author Lengaigne, M.
dc.contributor.author Sultan, B.
dc.contributor.author Polcher, J.
dc.contributor.author Drapeau, G.
dc.contributor.author Guyot, J. L.
dc.contributor.author Ducharne, A.
dc.contributor.author Ciais, P.
dc.coverage.spatial Cuenca del río Amazonas
dc.coverage.spatial Amazonía
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-19T17:37:44Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-19T17:37:44Z
dc.date.issued 2013-03-07
dc.identifier.citation Guimberteau, M., Ronchail, J., Espinoza, J. C., Lengaigne, M., Sultan, B., Polcher, J., ... Ciais, P. (2013). Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins.==$Environmental Research Letters, 8$==(1), 014035. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035 es_ES
dc.identifier.govdoc index-oti2018
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/2996
dc.description.abstract Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Obidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in elasticity) than the western sub-basins, experiencing high runoff coefficient and no change in streamflow elasticity to precipitation. These projections raise important issues for populations living near the rivers whose activity is regulated by the present annual cycle of waters. The question of their adaptability has already arisen. es_ES
dc.format application/pdf es_ES
dc.language.iso eng es_ES
dc.publisher IOP Publishing es_ES
dc.relation.ispartof urn:issn:1748-9326
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess es_ES
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/ es_ES
dc.subject Amazon es_ES
dc.subject ORCHIDEE es_ES
dc.subject Streamflow extreme es_ES
dc.subject Climate change es_ES
dc.subject Precipitation es_ES
dc.title Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins es_ES
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article es_ES
dc.subject.ocde http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.00 es_ES
dc.subject.ocde http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 es_ES
dc.identifier.journal Environmental Research Letters es_ES
dc.description.peer-review Por pares es_ES
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014035 es_ES

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